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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.