Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.